Constructing Estimates of Reachability Sets in Crowd Flows Modeling

Abstract

Mathematical modeling of crowd flows in a building is studied. The study is based on a modification of the discrete CTM macromodel built on guaranteed estimates. Two methods for an approximate calculation of the reachability set—the number of people in each room at the next point in time—are proposed. Interval estimates and estimates in the form of sets of two-dimensional projections are constructed. The proposed algorithms are illustrated by numerical examples.