The Abraham Accords between Israel, UAE and Bahrain in the context of changing of the geopolitical reality in the Middle East

Abstract

The article analyzes the geopolitical significance of the normalization agreements between Israel, UAE and Bahrain, which were signed in September 2020 and became known as the Abraham Accords (the title refers to the Biblical Abraham, who is considered to be the forefather of both Arabs and Jews). The authors examine the historical background of the agreements, their features and differences from the previous acts on the Arab-Israeli settlement, as well as their impact on the geopolitical reality of the Middle East. In addition, the article contains predictions on the possible prospects of the remaining Gulf States (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Kuwait) joining the agreements. As the authors note, the normalization between Israel and the two Gulf monarchies has become possible due to three main factors. The first factor is the presence of the common enemy, Iran, which threatens both the Jewish state and the Gulf monarchies. The second factor is the consequential decline of the importance of the Palestinian issue among the Gulf leaders, disappointed with the stubbornness of Palestinian leadership and interested in cooperation with Israel. Finally, the authors underline the pro-Israeli policies of D.J.Trump, which strongly stimulated the acceleration in the normalization process, focusing on the Arab-Israeli normalization before reaching a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Thus, according to the authors, the Abraham Accords have a potential to stimulate an acceleration to Arab-Israeli reconciliation all across the MENA region as it already did with Morocco and Sudan, which followed UAR and Bahrain in normalizing with Israel shortly after the accords were signed.