Between Peace and Conflict: The Middle East After the Abraham Accords

Abstract

In 2020, four Arab states - Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco - took their first steps toward normalizing relations with Israel with the active US support. This research is an attempt to identify the main incentives which made the Arab states act the way they did, as well as to analyze the situation of the Palestinians amidst the strengthening of relations between Israel and the Arab world. The author also examines how the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which began on October 7, 2023, has affected the established diplomatic, economic, and military ties between the Jewish state and the Arab countries which signed the Abraham Accords. The study concludes that one of the main incentives for Arab states to normalize relations with Israel is the desire to deepen military and technical cooperation with the U.S. At the same time, it would be far-fetched to consider the normalization of relations between the four states and Israel as a step toward regional stabilization, given the reaction of the Palestinians and other Middle Eastern states to the agreements embraced. The reaction reflects the failure to find a common approach to the Middle East peace process as well as the fact that there is no region-widely shared view on shaping a new regional architecture. In this context, it is worth highlighting the situation of the Palestinians, for whom these agreements were a stab in the back and created unfavorable conditions for the establishment of a full-fledged state of Palestine. The study also emphasizes that the future of the “Abraham Accords” and the possibility of their expansion will depend on the development of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, as well as on the readiness of the parties to reach a long-term peaceful settlement. The continuation of the conflict in Gaza would seriously undermine Israel’s image in the Arab world and would certainly undermine the fundamental principles of the Abraham Accords, which would diminish the importance of these agreements. This study offers a valuable perspective on the complex and dynamic relationships in the Middle East region and contributes to understanding the motives and consequences of recent geopolitical changes.