Synthesis of dynamic and eco-screening approaches in modeling for ecological risk assessment

Abstract

The paper proposes a method of mathematical modeling and assessment of ecological risk for marine ecological systems under the combined action of natural, anthropogenic and climatic factors. The method is based on the use of observational data, dynamic models of ecosystem state and probabilistic ecoscreening risk assessments. The main idea and novelty of the method is to take into account the annual variations of ecological risk and substantiates the primacy of determining the magnitude of the allowable risk of ecological systems, and then the allowable intensity of anthropogenic impact. Calculations using the proposed method makes it possible to get answers to questions about the principle of the admissibility of accidents of certain scales. The use of the proposed method for specific ecosystems will help to harmonize ecological and economic requirements to ensure the ecological safety of the development of shelf resources.