Environmental risk assessments for contrasting Arctic shelf ecosystems

Abstract

The article presents environmental risk assessments for two types of contrasting ecosystems of the Arctic shelf: highly productive and low-productive. Calculations were carried out using a probabilistic risk model with variations in the impact on the ecosystem from stressors, taking into account the risks from the technological processes of extraction and transportation of mineral resources of the shelf. Comparison of the results of risk modeling for highly productive and low-productive ecosystems showed that due to the low productivity of marine ecosystems, reliability requirements for technological processes ensuring the safety of resource development should not be reduced. The nontrivial conclusion obtained confirms the nonlinearity of the ecosystem response to impacts, which justifies the involvement not only of expert assessments, but also of all available methods, including modeling, to minimize the risks of Arctic resource development.