THE KEY FEATURES OF THE CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

Abstract

This paper investigates spatial and temporal features of the climate change in the Republic of Belarus during the period from 1960 to 2019. To accomplish this, we used data on daily average surface air temperature and applied decomposing the time series of these data with singular-spectrum analysis. We analyzed the principal components and long-term average anomalies of average annual, winter and summer air temperatures, the number of frosty days in the cold season and the number of winter days with thaws, the duration and heat supply of the growing season, as well as the frequency and intensity of heat waves. We also estimated the rates of moving the annual sum of active temperatures and the duration of the growing season from the south to the north of Belarus as a result of global warming. The ERA5 reanalysis estimates the spatial and temporal changes in the balance between annual rainfall and potential evaporation from 1980 to 2019. The average annual air temperature in 2000-2019 is shown to be exceeded the long-term average of this value by 1.8° C. The annual sum of active temperatures moves northward at an average speed of 120 km in 10 years with acceleration. Over the past 20 years, the rate of this displacement has doubled in comparison with the period 1980-2000. The length of the growing season moves from the south to the north at a speed of about 110 km per 10 years. It is shown that an increase in potential evaporation due to air warming when slightly changing annual amount of precipitation leads to aridization of the climate of Belarus emitting a reduction in the duration of the cold period with a simultaneous increase in the number of thaws does not contribute to the replenishment of water reserves during snowmelt. Additional damage to forestry and agriculture might be caused by heat waves, the frequency of which for 2000-2019 increased by a factor of 4 compared to the previous 20-year period. Additional damage to forestry and agriculture might be caused by heat waves, which frequency during last 19 years increased by a factor of 4 compared to the previous 20 years.