Potential Climate Impacts of Reforestation and Waterlogging in Belarus

Abstract

The article discusses the expected climate changes in Belarus as a result of two types of land transformation – rewetting degraded peatlands and increasing forest cover. The analysis was performed for the growing season (May–September) based on long-term Earth remote sensing data, mesoscale modeling of atmospheric processes, and balance calculations using ERA5 reanalysis. It is shown that as a result of waterlogging, the daytime temperature of the underlying surface for the southern part of Belarus (below the latitude of Minsk) decreases within 1.5°С due to increased consumption, and for the northern part – within 0.5°С due to albedo regularity. At night, waterlogging, depending on the soil and climatic conditions, can cause both an increase and a specific value of the underlying surface temperature within 1°C. Evapotranspiration due to waterlogging in the northern regions of Belarus, and in the southern regions – emissions, which is associated with a significant ratio between consumption and transpiration in these regions. During the reforestation of cropland, the daytime land surface temperature of Belarus territory decreases within 2°C, and at night – within 0.4°C. The total evapotranspiration for the growing season due to the increase in forest cover reaches 100 mm, and approaching (maximum possible) consumption remains at the same level, which overestimates soil absorption at an increased amount of atmospheric pressure. The above changes in the physical characteristics of the underlying surface as a result of reclamation determine the standard surface air temperature in the reclamated disease within 0.4°C and an increase in the sums of atmospheric conditions within 2% of the climatic norm. At the same time, secondary reactions are predominantly distributed in morbidity due to western transfer with an emphasis on the eastern border distribution to the reclaimed region.