Spatial analysis of factors influencing bacterial leaf blight in rice production

Abstract

Abstract Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae (Xoo) causes bacterial leaf blight that is a major threat to rice production. Crop losses in extreme situations can reach up to75%, and millions of hectares of rice are affected each year. Management of the disease required information about the spatial distribution of BLB incidence, severity, and prevalence. In this study, major rice-growing areas of Pakistan were surveyed during 2018-2019 for disease occurrence, and thematic maps were developed using geographic information system (GIS). Results showed that Narowal district had highest percentage of disease incidence (54-69%), severity (42-44%), and prevalence (72-90%) meanwhile Jhung district had the lowest incidence (21-23%), severity (18-22%), and prevalence (45-54%). To understand the environmental factors contributing to this major rice disease, the research analyze, the spatial relationships between BLB prevalence and environmental variables. Those variables include relative humidity (RH), atmospheric pressure (A.P), minimum temperature, soil organic carbon, soil pH, and elevation, which were evaluated by using GIS-based Ordinary Least Square (OLS) spatial model. The fitted model had a coefficient of determination (R2) of 65 percent explanatory power of disease development. All environmental variables showed a general trend of positive correlation between BLB prevalence and environmental variables. The results show the potential for disease management and prediction using environmental variable and assessment.