Spatial distribution of arboviruses and its association with a social development index and the waste disposal in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil, 2015 to 2019

Abstract

ABSTRACT Objective: To detect spatial and spatiotemporal clusters of urban arboviruses and to investigate whether the social development index (SDI) and irregular waste disposal are related to the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection in São Luís, state of Maranhão, Brazil. Methods: The confirmed cases of Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya in São Luís, from 2015 to 2019, were georeferenced to the census tract of residence. The Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive regression model was used to identify the association between SDI and irregular waste disposal sites and the coefficient of urban arboviruses detection. Results: The spatial pattern of arboviruses pointed to the predominance of a low-incidence cluster, except 2016. For the years 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2019, an increase of one unit of waste disposal site increased the coefficient of arboviruses detection in 1.25, 1.09, 1.23, and 1.13 cases of arboviruses per 100 thousand inhabitants, respectively. The SDI was not associated with the coefficient of arboviruses detection. Conclusion: In São Luís, spatiotemporal risk clusters for the occurrence of arboviruses and a positive association between the coefficient of arbovirus detection and sites of irregular waste disposal were identified.