Reliability assessment using degradation models: bayesian and classical approaches

Abstract

Traditionally, reliability assessment of devices has been based on (accelerated) life tests. However, for highly reliable products, little information about reliability is provided by life tests in which few or no failures are typically observed. Since most failures arise from a degradation mechanism at work for which there are characteristics that degrade over time, one alternative is monitor the device for a period of time and assess its reliability from the changes in performance (degradation) observed during that period. The goal of this article is to illustrate how degradation data can be modeled and analyzed by using "classical" and Bayesian approaches. Four methods of data analysis based on classical inference are presented. Next we show how Bayesian methods can also be used to provide a natural approach to analyzing degradation data. The approaches are applied to a real data set regarding train wheels degradation.