Improving Indian meteorological department method for 24- hourly rainfall downscaling to shorter durations for IDF modelling

Abstract

The development of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) models for storm drain design and related flood mitigation structures requires rainfall amount and corresponding duration records. To achieve this purpose, three short duration downscaling methods from 24-hourly rainfall amount data were selected for improvement, namely: IMD, AIMD and MCIMD, with the CAMS method used as the experiment control. Three types of general PDF-IDF models (GEVT-1, LPT-3 and ND) were developed based on the downscaling methods yielding goodness of fit (R2) with very high correlation of 0.995–0.999 and model accuracy with mean square error (MSE) of 4.123–7.85. The PDF-IDF models predicted intensities plotted against durations for different return periods of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years, showed visual differences in the predictive performance of the intensities derived from the downscaling methods. Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric test of significance at 5% level carried out showed that no-significant difference exist for 15-60 minutes duration, while the difference was significant for durations between 90–300 minutes. The LPT-3 based on MCIMD yielded higher improved performance in prediction of intensities relative to the IMD. The level of improvement ranges from 35.17 to 52.26% and 25.0 to 39.89%; while that of AIMD ranges from 10.97 to 20.87% and 3.33 to 12.53% for 10 and 100 year return periods, respectively. The use of the IMD downscaling method with the LPT-3 PDF-IDF model for design purposes will be justified if modified with some percentage improvement or adjustment factor.