Effects of Climate Change in Marine Ecosystems Based on the Spatiotemporal Age Structure of Top Predators: A Case Study of Bigeye Tuna in the Pacific Ocean

Abstract

How top predators behave and are distributed depend on the conditions in their marine ecosystem through bottom−up forcing; this is because where and when these predators can feed and spawn are limited and change often. This study investigated how the catch rates of immature and mature cohorts of bigeye tuna (BET) varied across space and time; this was achieved by analyzing data on the Taiwanese longline fishery in the western and central Pacific Ocean (WCPO). We also conducted a case study on the time series patterns of BET cohorts to explore the processes that underlie the bottom-up control of the pelagic ecosystem that are influenced by decadal climate events. Wavelet analysis results revealed crucial synchronous shifts in the connection between the pelagic ecosystems at low trophic levels in relation to the immature BET cohort. Many variables exhibited decreasing trends after 2004–2005, and we followed the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as a bottom-up control regulator. The results indicated that low recruitment into the mature cohort occurs 3 years after a decrease in the immature cohort’s food stocks, as indicated by a 3-year lag in our results. This finding demonstrated that, by exploring the connection between low-trophic-level species and top predators at various life stages, we can better understand how climate change affects the distribution and abundance of predator fish.