Quantifying the contribution of temperature, salinity, and climate change to sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean: 2005-2019

Abstract

In recent decades, Pacific Ocean’s steric sea level anomaly (SSLA) has shown prominent patterns among global sea level variations. With ongoing global warming, the frequency and intensity of climate and sea level changes have increased, particularly in the tropical Pacific region. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the overall trends and mechanisms governing volumetric sea level changes in the Pacific. To accurately quantify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of density-driven sea level change in the Pacific Ocean (PO) from 2005 to 2019, we decomposed temperature and salinity into linear trends, interannual variations, seasonal variations, and residual terms using the STL (seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess) method. To evaluate the influence of ocean temperature, salinity, and climate change on density-driven sea level change and its underlying mechanisms, we decompose temperature as well as salinity changes through into the Heaving (vertical displacements of isopycnal surfaces) and Spicing (density-compensated temperature and salinity change) modes. The findings reveal an average steric sea level rise rate of 0.34 ± 0.16 mm/yr in the PO from 2005 to 2019. Thermosteric sea-level accounts for 82% of this rise, primarily due to seawater temperature rise at depths of 0-700 m caused by Heaving mode changes. Accelerated SSLA increase via the thermosteric effect has been connected to interactions between greater Ekman downwelling from surface winds, radiation forcing linked to global greenhouse gases, and changes in the Pacific warm currents triggered by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. Although salinity is affected by the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the southern Indian Ocean, however the significance of salinity in sea level change is little compared to the role played by thermocline shift. This study offers a substantial contribution to the field, providing robust data and technical support, and facilitating a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying the effects of temperature and salinity on sea level changes during periods of rapid climate change, thus enhancing the accuracy of future predictions regarding sea level rise.