Adaptive individual residential load forecasting based on deep learning and dynamic mirror descent

Abstract

With a growing penetration of renewable energy generation in the modern power networks, it has become highly challenging for network operators to balance electricity supply and demand. Residential load forecasting nowadays plays an increasingly important role in this aspect and facilitates various interactions between power networks and electricity users. While numerous research works have been proposed targeting at aggregate residential load forecasting, only a few efforts have been made towards individual residential load forecasting. The issue of volatility of individual residential load has never been addressed in forecasting. Thus, to fill this gap, this paper presents a deep learning method empowered with dynamic mirror descent for adaptive individual residential load forecasting. The proposed method is evaluated on a real-life Irish residential load dataset, and the experimental results show that it improves the prediction accuracy by 9.1% and 11.6% in the aspects of RMSE and MAE respectively in comparison with a benchmark method.