An Accurate Method for Studying Individual Microbial Lag: Experiments and Computations

Abstract

Variability in the behavior of microbial foodborne pathogens and spoilers causes difficulties in predicting the safety and quality of food products during their shelf life. Therefore, the quantification of the individual microbial lag phase distribution is of high relevance to the field of quantitative microbial risk assessment. To construct models that predict the effect of changes in environmental conditions on the individual lag, an accurate determination of these distributions is required. Therefore, the current research focuses on the development of an experimental and computational method for accurate determination of individual lag phase distribution. The experimental method is unique in the sense that full liquid volumes are sampled without using dilutions to detect the final population, thereby minimizing experimental errors. Moreover, the method does not aim at the isolation of single cells but at a low number of cells. The fact that several cells can be present in the initial samples instead of having a single cell is considered by the computational method. This method relies on Monte Carlo simulation to predict the individual lag phase distribution for a given set of distribution parameters and maximum likelihood estimation to find the parameters that describe the experimental data best. The method was validated both through simulation and experiments and was found to deliver a desired accuracy.