Discriminating Suicide Attempters and Predicting Suicide Risk Using Altered Frontolimbic Resting-State Functional Connectivity in Patients With Bipolar II Disorder

Abstract

Bipolar II disorder (BD-II) major depression episode is highly associated with suicidality, and objective neural biomarkers could be key elements to assist in early prevention and intervention. This study aimed to integrate altered brain functionality in the frontolimbic system and machine learning techniques to classify suicidal BD-II patients and predict suicidality risk at the individual level. A cohort of 169 participants were enrolled, including 43 BD-II depression patients with at least one suicide attempt during a current depressive episode (SA), 62 BD-II depression patients without a history of attempted suicide (NSA), and 64 demographically matched healthy controls (HCs). We compared resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) in the frontolimbic system among the three groups and explored the correlation between abnormal rsFCs and the level of suicide risk (assessed using the Nurses' Global Assessment of Suicide Risk, NGASR) in SA patients. Then, we applied support vector machines (SVMs) to classify SA vs. NSA in BD-II patients and predicted the risk of suicidality. SA patients showed significantly decreased frontolimbic rsFCs compared to NSA patients. The left amygdala-right middle frontal gyrus (orbital part) rsFC was negatively correlated with NGASR in the SA group, but not the severity of depressive or anxiety symptoms. Using frontolimbic rsFCs as features, the SVMs obtained an overall 84% classification accuracy in distinguishing SA and NSA. A significant correlation was observed between the SVMs-predicted NGASR and clinical assessed NGASR (r = 0.51, p = 0.001). Our results demonstrated that decreased rsFCs in the frontolimbic system might be critical objective features of suicidality in BD-II patients, and could be useful for objective prediction of suicidality risk in individuals.