Risk identification and mitigation among rice farmers in Pakistan: a fuzzy-AHP multi-criteria decision-making approach

Abstract

Rice farming in developing countries contributes significantly to economic growth, yet it confronts diverse risks. Strengthening its resilience necessitates systematically identifying and prioritizing these risks, allowing for optimized resource allocation. The majority of published literature, however, focuses primarily on individual risks rather than comparing or ranking them according to their importance. This regime needs to be more helpful for managers and policy-makers in achieving effective management. As a result, frequent management failures are causing substantial economic losses and threatening food security in the most populous regions of the world. This study addresses these existing research gaps by systematically identifying and prioritizing these risks, aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, viz., Zero Hunger, ultimately contributing to enhanced risk management and developing countries’ rice farming sector resilience. Data was obtained from Pakistan through a purposefully designed questionnaire and sourced from a pool of 412 respondents representing a spectrum of stakeholders selected by the snowball technique. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) was employed to deconstruct and comprehend the data statistically. A key observation is the recognition of the main risks within rice farming, notably revolving around resource-related and external environmental risks. These risks emphasize the critical management of sub-risks of water management and pest and disease. This study also identified several risk sub-factors that are critical but have yet to be extensively discussed in the literature. Furthermore, survey respondents expressed low levels of risk perception and suggested strengthening the management system through policy reforms. To enhance the resilience of rice farming, stakeholders must engage in effective risk communication, capacity building, and policy implementation. Therefore, more comprehensive integrated risk management interventions are urgently needed to address rice farming risks for achieving SDG 2.