A Joint Model Considering Measurement Errors for Optimally Identifying Tumor Mutation Burden Threshold

Abstract

Tumor mutation burden (TMB) is a recognized stratification biomarker for immunotherapy. Nevertheless, the general TMB-high threshold is unstandardized due to severe clinical controversies, with the underlying cause being inconsistency between multiple assessment criteria and imprecision of the TMB value. The existing methods for determining TMB thresholds all consider only a single dimension of clinical benefit and ignore the interference of the TMB error. Our research aims to determine the TMB threshold optimally based on multifaceted clinical efficacies accounting for measurement errors. We report a multi-endpoint joint model as a generalized method for inferring the TMB thresholds, facilitating consistent statistical inference using an iterative numerical estimation procedure considering mis-specified covariates. The model optimizes the division by combining objective response rate and time-to-event outcomes, which may be interrelated due to some shared traits. We augment previous works by enabling subject-specific random effects to govern the communication among distinct endpoints. Our simulations show that the proposed model has advantages over the standard model in terms of precision and stability in parameter estimation and threshold determination. To validate the feasibility of the proposed thresholds, we pool a cohort of 73 patients with non-small-cell lung cancer and 64 patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma who underwent anti-PD-(L)1 treatment, as well as validation cohorts of 943 patients. Analyses revealed that our approach could grant clinicians a holistic efficacy assessment, culminating in a robust determination of the TMB screening threshold for superior patients. Our methodology has the potential to yield innovative insights into therapeutic selection and support precision immuno-oncology.