Determination of Factors Affecting Dengue Occurrence in Representative Areas of China: A Principal Component Regression Analysis

Abstract

Background: Determination of the key factors affecting dengue occurrence is of significant importance for the successful response to its outbreak. Yunnan and Guangdong Provinces in China are hotspots of dengue outbreak during recent years. However, few studies focused on the drive of multi-dimensional factors on dengue occurrence failing to consider the possible multicollinearity of the studied factors, which may bias the results.Methods: In this study, multiple linear regression analysis was utilized to explore the effect of multicollinearity among dengue occurrences and related natural and social factors. A principal component regression (PCR) analysis was utilized to determine the key dengue-driven factors in Guangzhou city of Guangdong Province and Xishuangbanna prefecture of Yunnan Province, respectively.Results: The effect of multicollinearity existed in both Guangzhou city and Xishuangbanna prefecture, respectively. PCR model revealed that the top three contributing factors to dengue occurrence in Guangzhou were Breteau Index (BI) (positive correlation), the number of imported dengue cases lagged by 1 month (positive correlation), and monthly average of maximum temperature lagged by 1 month (negative correlation). In contrast, the top three factors contributing to dengue occurrence in Xishuangbanna included monthly average of minimum temperature lagged by 1 month (positive correlation), monthly average of maximum temperature (positive correlation), monthly average of relative humidity (positive correlation), respectively.Conclusion: Meteorological factors presented stronger impacts on dengue occurrence in Xishuangbanna, Yunnan, while BI and the number of imported cases lagged by 1 month played important roles on dengue transmission in Guangzhou, Guangdong. Our findings could help to facilitate the formulation of tailored dengue response mechanism in representative areas of China in the future.