A 12-month projection to September 2022 of the COVID-19 epidemic in the UK using a dynamic causal model

Abstract

ObjectivesPredicting the future UK COVID-19 epidemic allows other countries to compare their epidemic with one unfolding without public health measures except a vaccine program.MethodsA Dynamic Causal Model was used to estimate key model parameters of the UK epidemic, such as vaccine effectiveness and increased transmissibility of Alpha and Delta variants, the effectiveness of the vaccine program roll-out and changes in contact rates. The model predicts the future trends in infections, long-COVID, hospital admissions and deaths.ResultsTwo-dose vaccination given to 66% of the UK population prevents transmission following infection by 44%, serious illness by 86% and death by 93%. Despite this, with no other public health measures used, cases will increase from 37 million to 61 million, hospital admissions from 536,000 to 684,000 and deaths from 136,000 to 142,000 over 12 months. A retrospective analysis (conducted after the original submission of this report) allowed a comparison of these predictions of morbidity and mortality with actual outcomes.ConclusionVaccination alone will not control the epidemic. Relaxation of mitigating public health measures carries several risks, which include overwhelming the health services, the creation of vaccine resistant variants and the economic cost of huge numbers of acute and chronic cases.