Instantaneous reproduction number and epidemic growth rate for predicting COVID-19 waves: the first 2 years of the pandemic in Spain

Abstract

IntroductionSeveral indicators were employed to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. In this study, our objective was to compare the instantaneous reproductive number and the epidemic growth rate in the Spanish population.MethodsData on daily numbers of cases, admissions into hospitals, admissions into ICUs, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Spain from March 2020 to March 2022 were obtained. The four “pandemic state indicators”, which are daily numbers of cases, admissions into hospitals, admissions into ICUs, and deaths due to COVID-19 in Spain from March 2020 to March 2022 were obtained from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III. The epidemic growth rate was estimated as the derivative of the natural logarithm of daily cases with respect to time. Both the reproductive number and the growth rate, as “pandemic trend indicators,” were evaluated according to their capacity to anticipate waves as “pandemic state indicators.”ResultsUsing both the reproductive number and the epidemic growth rate, we were able to anticipate most COVID-19 waves. In most waves, the more severe the presentation of COVID-19, the more effective the pandemic trend indicators would be.ConclusionBesides daily number of cases or other measures of disease frequency, the epidemic growth rate and the reproductive number have different roles in measuring the trend of an epidemic. Naïve interpretations and the use of any indicator as a unique value to make decisions should be discouraged.