Predicting the distribution of suitable habitat of the poisonous weed Astragalus variabilis in China under current and future climate conditions

Abstract

Astragalus variabilis is a locoweed of northwest China that can seriously impede livestock development. However, it also plays various ecological roles, such as wind protection and sand fixation. Here, we used an optimized MaxEnt model to predict the distribution of suitable habitat of A. variabilis under current (1970–2000) conditions and future (2021–2080) climate change scenarios based on recent occurrence records. The most important environmental variables (suitability ranges in parentheses) affecting the distribution of A. variabilis were average maximum temperature of February (–2.12–5.34°C), followed by total precipitation of June (2.06–37.33 mm), and topsoil organic carbon (0.36–0.69%). The habitat suitability of A. variabilis was significantly correlated with the frequency of livestock poisoning (p < 0.05). Under current climate conditions, the suitable environment of A. variabilis was distributed in central and western Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, central and northwestern Gansu, central and northwestern Qinghai, and the four basins around the Tianshan Mountains in Xinjiang. Under future climate conditions, the suitable habitat of A. variabilis shifted to higher latitudes and altitudes. No previous studies have used niche models to predict the suitable environment of this species nor analyzed the relationship between the habitat suitability of poisonous plants and the frequency of animal poisoning. Our findings provide new insights that will aid the prevention of livestock animal poisoning and the control of poisonous plants, promote the development of the livestock husbandry industry, and provide basic information that will facilitate the maintenance of the ecological balance of grassland ecosystems.