Predicted Distribution of Locoweed Oxytropis glabra in China under Climate Change

Abstract

The research on the significant toxic weed Oxytropis glabra, which adversely affects the grazing industry and the ecological integrity of natural grasslands in the arid and semi-arid regions of northern China, aims to delineate its potential distribution amidst changing climate conditions. This analysis involves both current conditions (1970–2000) and future projections (2050s and 2070s) under four climate scenarios using an R-optimized MaxEnt model. The results indicate that the distribution of O. glabra was primarily influenced by the temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11, ranging from −12.04 to −0.07 °C), precipitation of the coldest quarter (bio19, 0 to 15.17 mm), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (bio18, 0 to 269.50 mm). Currently, the weed predominantly occupies parts of Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia, and Tibet. Projections indicate that, across four future climate scenarios, the area of suitable habitats for O. glabra is expected to expand and shift toward higher latitudes and elevations. The research provides valuable information and a theoretical foundation for the management of O. glabra, alongside advancing grassland ecological research and grazing practices.