Stability of gross primary productivity and its sensitivity to climate variability in China

Abstract

Identifying the stability and sensitivity of land ecosystems to climate change is vital for exploring nature-based solutions. However, the underlying mechanisms governing ecosystem stability and sensitivity, especially in regions with overlapping ecological projects, remain unclear. based on Mann-Kendall, stability analysis method, and multiple regression method, this study quantified the stability and sensitivity of gross primary productivity (GPP) to climate variables [temperature, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), soil moisture, and radiation] in China from 1982 to 2019. Our findings revealed the following: (1) GPP demonstrated an increased trend with lower stability in Eastern regions, whereas a decreasing trend with higher stability was observed in Western and Southwest China. Notably, the stability of GPP was highest (74.58%) in areas with five overlapping ecological projects: Grain to Green, Natural Forest Resource Protection Project, Three-River Ecological Conservation and Restoration Project, Return Grazing to Grassland Project, and Three-North Shelter Forestation Project. (2) In regions with minimal or no overlapping ecological projects, temperature and radiation jointly dominated GPP variations. In contrast, water-related factors (VPD and soil moisture) significantly affected GPP in areas with multiple overlapping ecological projects. (3) In the southwestern and northeastern regions, GPP exhibited the highest sensitivity to climate change, whereas, in the eastern coastal areas and Tibet, GPP showed low sensitivity to climate change. In the Loess Plateau, where five ecological projects overlap extensively, carbon sinks primarily demonstrate a monotonic increasing trend, high stability, and low sensitivity to climate change. This study aimed to assess the stability of the land ecosystems and delineate their sensitivity to climate changes, thereby laying the groundwork for understanding ecosystem resilience.