Macroeconomic effects of crude oil shocks: Evidence from South Asian countries

Abstract

This research tends to convey the relationship between crude oil price volatility and key macroeconomics indicators, i.e., gross domestic product (GDP), inflation rate (IR), interest rate, and exchange rate. The study collected the time-series data (2000–2020) from the South Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka), and employed macroeconomic policy modeling tools (impulse response function and the prediction error variance decomposition technique) in the vector autorepression (VAR) setup. The outcome of the impulse response function explained considerable variance among macroeconomic indicators in response to crude oil price shocks. The macroeconomic indicators are extremely susceptible to minor fluctuations in oil prices causing a significant impact on the region's socioeconomic situation. The result of variance decomposition indicates that each country in the region reacts differently to crude oil price volatility which reflects their macroeconomics fundamentals, independent policy, sector structure, and country differences. The findings support change in public policies in a way to reduce their dependency on oil energy and encourage them toward renewal and green energy sources for better environmental results and sustainable development.