Model emulators for the assessment of regional impacts and risks of climate change: A case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico

Abstract

The collection of publicly available databases about climate change and its impacts on natural and human systems is unprecedented and ever-growing. However, the requirements of information can vary widely among users depending on their region, socioenvironmental context, and interests. Moreover, in the current era of active mitigation and adaptation policies, information needs are frequently not satisfied even by these massive and variated collections of databases. The development and use of emulators can help closing this information gap by allowing users to approximate the output from complex models and create user-defined experiments, without being technically or computational demanding on the user. Here, a simple emulator of the EPIC biophysical crop model is presented which is able to adequately reproduce the changes in rainfed maize and to create projections for user-defined scenarios. Moreover, it allows to produce risk measures that are not available with the original model. The proposed methodology is illustrated with a case study of rainfed maize production in Mexico for a reference emissions scenario (SSP370) and two user-defined international mitigation policy scenarios. These scenarios represent 1) current international mitigation commitments and 2) a scenario in which China withdraws from international mitigation efforts. Results showed that, under the reference scenario, climate change could have widespread consequences on rainfed production all over the country with decreases in yields reaching up to 80% in the southeast and northeast of the country. These impacts can be partially modulated by the moderately ambitious mitigation commitments assumed in recent international agreements if all countries comply. However, a potential withdraw of China from these efforts would significantly reduce any benefits from international mitigation. Under all scenarios, changes in productivity impose increasing risks for already vulnerable populations and considerable economic costs at the state and national levels. These results suggest the urgent need for critical planning for adaptation in the agricultural sector of the country.