Identification and frequency analysis of drought–flood abrupt alternation events using a daily-scale standardized weighted average of the precipitation index

Abstract

Drought–flood abrupt alternation (DFAA), which is defined as the rapid transition between drought and flood in a short period, amplifies the negative impacts of individual drought or flood. DFAA is divided into drought to flood (DTF) and flood to drought (FTD) according to the sequences of drought and flood. Previous studies of identifying DFAA events have mostly been conducted over a long timescale (e.g., over a month), leading to inaccurate identification or omissions of DFAA events. In addition, frequency analysis of DTF and FTD events, which is vital for the design of hydraulic structures and water supply systems, has rarely been studied. This study establishes an identification method for DFAA events based on a daily-scale standardized weighted average of the precipitation index (SWAP) and conducts frequency analysis of DTF and FTD events based on copula theory. The Han River Basin (HRB), China, a crucial area for water resource management, was selected as the study area. Our findings disclose that DFAA events occurred less frequently with larger intensities and durations between 1961 and 2020. The temporal trends of DTF and FTD events varied similarly, while the number of DTF events were less than that of FTD events, indicating that FTD is the main performance of DFAA in HRB. In addition, the identification processes of DFAA events at the Wuhan station were analyzed in detail and proved that SWAP is an effective index for capturing the change of precipitation and accurately depicting the occurrences of droughts and floods. Furthermore, drought intensity (DI) and flood intensity (FI) were selected for bivariate frequency analysis. An OR case was defined as DI ≥ di or FI ≥ fi, while an AND case was defined as DI ≥ di and FI ≥ fi. The results of frequency analysis showed that joint return periods (JRPs) of DFAA events under the OR case are basically equal in three sub-basins, meaning a similar occurrence of probability of drought–flood disaster. JRPs under the AND case increased from the upper and middle basins to the lower basin as a whole, indicating the decreasing risk of abrupt drought–flood transitions. Overall, this study may have potential value in the early warning and mitigation of DFAA disaster.