Spillover effect of energy intensity reduction targets on carbon emissions in China

Abstract

Since the reform and opening-up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic growth, but also led to a substantial increase in carbon emissions. The Chinese government has actively formulated energy intensity reduction targets and taken carbon emission reduction measures. The paper investigates the impact of energy intensity reduction targets on carbon emissions using a dynamic spatial Durbin model based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019. The results show that energy intensity reduction targets promote the reduction of local carbon emissions, but have a positive spillover effect on carbon emissions in adjacent regions. Meanwhile, green technology innovation has a non-linear moderating effect between energy intensity reduction targets and carbon emissions. Energy intensity reduction targets promote carbon emission reduction when green technology innovation is less than a threshold, while the promotion effect disappears when green technology innovation exceeds a threshold. The mechanism analysis shows that energy consumption structure is a channel through which energy intensity reduction targets affect carbon emissions in both local and adjacent regions. Further research found that peer competitive pressure promotes carbon emission reduction and alleviates pollution spillover, while central assessment pressure increases carbon emissions and aggravates pollution spillover. Based on the above findings, this study provides suggestions for policymakers aiming at carbon emission reduction by implementing target management policies and optimizing target management systems.