Snowfall deposition in mountainous terrain: a statistical downscaling scheme from high-resolution model data on simulated topographies

Abstract

One of the primary causes of non-uniform snowfall deposition on the ground in mountainous regions is the preferential deposition of snow, which results from the interaction of near-surface winds with topography and snow particles. However, producing high-resolution snowfall deposition patterns can be computationally expensive due to the need to run full atmospheric models. To address this, we developed two statistical downscaling schemes that can efficiently downscale near-surface, low-resolution snowfall data to fine-scale snow deposition accounting for the effect of preferential deposition in mountainous regions. Our approach relies on a comprehensive, model database generated using 3D wind fields from an atmospheric model and a preferential deposition model on several thousand simulated topographies covering a broad range in terrain characteristics. Both snowfall downscaling schemes rely on fine-scale topographic scaling parameters and low-resolution wind speed as input. While one scheme, referred to as the “wind scheme”, further necessitates fine-scale vertical wind components, a second scheme, referred to as the “aspect scheme”, does not require fine-scale temporal input. We achieve this by additionally downscaling near-surface vertical wind speed solely using topographic scaling parameters and low-resolution wind direction. We assess the performance of our downscaling schemes using an independent subset of the model database on simulated topographies, model data on actual terrain, and spatially measured new snow depth obtained through a photogrammetric drone survey following a snowfall event on previously snow-free ground. While the assessments show that our downscaling schemes perform well (relative errors ≤ ±3% with modeled and ≤ ±6% with measured snowfall deposition), they also demonstrate comparable results to benchmark downscaling models. However, our schemes notably outperform the benchmark models in representing fine-scale patterns. Our downscaling schemes possess several key features, including high computational efficiency, versatility enabled by the comprehensive model database, and independence from fine-scale temporal input data (aspect scheme), indicating their potential for widespread applicability. Therefore, our downscaling schemes for near-surface snowfall and vertical wind speed can be beneficial for various applications at fine grid resolutions such as in atmospheric and climate sciences, snow hydrology, glaciology, remote sensing, and avalanche sciences.