Application of different watershed units to debris flow susceptibility mapping: A case study of Northeast China

Abstract

The main purpose of this study was to compare two types of watershed units divided by the hydrological analysis method (HWUs) and mean curvature method (CWUs) for debris flow susceptibility mapping (DFSM) in Northeast China. Firstly, a debris flow inventory map consisting of 129 debris flows and 129 non-debris flows was randomly divided into a ratio of 70% and 30% for training and testing. Secondly, 13 influencing factors were selected and the correlations between these factors and the debris flows were determined by frequency ration analysis. Then, two types of watershed units (HWUs and CWUs) were divided and logistic regression (LR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), classification and regression tree (CART) and Bayesian network (BN) were selected as the evaluation models. Finally, the predictive capabilities of the models were verified using the predictive accuracy (ACC), the Kappa coefficient and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The mean AUC, ACC and Kappa of four models (LR, MLP, CART and BN) in the training stage were 0.977, 0.931, and 0.861, respectively, for the HWUs, while 0.961, 0.905, and 0.810, respectively, for the CWUs; in the testing stage, were 0.904, 0.818, and 0.635, respectively, for the HWUs, while 0.883, 0.800, and 0.601, respectively, for the CWUs, which showed that HWU model has a higher debris flow prediction performance compared with the CWU model. The CWU-based model can reflect the spatial distribution probability of debris flows in the study area overall and can be used as an alternative model.