Integrating Potential Land Use Conflict Into Ecological Security Pattern in Response to Land Use/Cover Changes at a County Scale in Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract

Identifying key ecological nodes/corridors and priority restoration areas (KENPRA) is the key link for optimizing land use and ecological security patterns (ESPs). However, few studies have considered future land use/cover change (LUCC) and urban sprawl in identifying KENPRA for ESP maintenance. To optimize KENPRA, we took Quanjiao County, Anhui Province, China as a case study area, a typical unit for Chinese Land Spatial Planning and a suburb of Yangtze River Delta agglomeration challenging LUCC and ecological security pattern maintenance. A comprehensive framework for optimizing KENPRA has been established by integrating ESP and land use conflict (LUC) to adapt to land use change for corresponding urbanization processes. A CA-Markov model was used to predict future land use under different KENPRA-based scenarios in 2030. The results found that the total area of 4,357.2 ha priority restoration areas and 17 key ecological nodes was KENPRA, which were approximately 50% and concentrated in intensive LUC areas. The result of the simulation model showed that KENPRA-based scenarios integrating LUC indicated less urban expansion and better effectiveness for maintaining ESPs in 2030. The findings and proposed framework provide new and important information and implications for planners and policymakers to understand and improve land planning/policy; the results also can provide better understanding of the coupled human–nature system linking LUCC, ecosystem services, and land and restoration planning.