Simulation Analysis of Land-Use Spatial Conflict in a Geopark Based on the GMOP–Markov–PLUS Model: A Case Study of Yimengshan Geopark, China

Abstract

The foundation for accurately understanding regional land-use structures and pursuing the coordination of human–land relations is the scientific identification and simulation of temporal and spatial evolution patterns of land-use spatial conflict (LUSC). Based on the production–living–ecological space (PLES) perspective, a land-use spatial conflict identification and intensity diagnosis model (LUCSII) was constructed using a landscape ecology index. The methods of geographic information system (GIS), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and mathematical statistics were used to achieve the spatial pattern of LUSC over the last 20 years, and the GMOP–Markov–PLUS model was used to simulate the evolution of LUSC in the future under various scenarios. The results indicated that our established LUCSII could accurately identify potential land-use spatial conflict areas in geoparks. The GMOP–Markov–PLUS model constructed had also scientifically predicted the future land-use patterns under different scenarios, successfully demonstrating the changing process of spatial conflict pattern evolution. The research proposed three different plans for the long-term land use of YG, including ecological protection, economic development, and long-term development perspectives. Finally, the research further emphasized the importance for sustainable development of geoparks. More attention should be paid to the optimal allocation of land-use structure and the coordinated development of human–land relationships.