Changes in Extreme Climate Events in Rice-Growing Regions Under Different Warming Scenarios in China

Abstract

Scientific prediction of critical time points of the global temperature increases and assessment of the associated changes in extreme climate events can provide essential guidance for agricultural production, regional governance, and disaster mitigation. Using daily temperature and precipitation model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the time points of the temperature that will increase by 1.5 and 2.0°C were assessed under three different scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585). To characterize the change of extreme climate events in the rice-growing regions in China, six indices were designed, and a time slice method was used. An analysis from an ensemble of CMIP6 models showed that under SSP245, the global mean temperature will rise by 1.5°C/2.0°C by approximately 2030/2049. A global warming of 2.0°C does not occur under SSP126. The time for a 1.5°C/2.0°C warming all becomes earlier under SSP585. Under 1.5°C of global warming, the number of warm days (TX90p), rice heat damage index (Ha), consecutive dry days (CDD), 5-day maximum precipitation (Rx5day), and number of annual total extreme precipitation events (R99pTOT) will clearly increase, while the number of cold damage (Cd) events will decrease. All the indices show a strong variability regionally. For example, the CDD increased significantly in the Central China and South China rice-growing regions. The monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation increased by as much as 6.8 mm in the Southwest China rice-growing region.