Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Changes in Extreme Climate Events in Northwest China from 1960 to 2021: A Case Study of Xinjiang

Abstract

Xinjiang, as a climate-sensitive region in Northwest China, holds significant importance in studying extreme climate events for agricultural production and socioeconomic development. Using data spanning from 1960 to 2021 from 52 meteorological stations across Xinjiang, encompassing 23 indices of extreme climate events, the 5-year moving average, linear trend fitting, and inverse distance weighting (IDW) are used to analyze the distribution patterns and temporal changes in extreme climatic phenomena within the region. The results indicate that, over the period from 1960 to 2021, the Amplitude Temperature Index, Heat Index, and Warm Spell Duration Index in Xinjiang exhibited a marked increasing trend, whereas the Cold Index and Cold Spell Duration Index displayed a significant decreasing trend. The range of changes in the extreme temperature indices from 1990 to 2021 is higher than that of 1960 to 1989. The areas with high values of amplitude temperature extreme indices are primarily concentrated in the southern part, while the areas with high values of cold indices are mainly distributed in the northern part. The upward/downward trends all account for over 80.00% of the entire region. The precipitation scale indices, precipitation day indices, intense precipitation index, and extreme precipitation index all showed a significant growth trend from 1960 to 2021, and the range of change in the extreme precipitation indices from 1990 to 2021 was lower than that from 1960 to 1989. Furthermore, areas with high precipitation values and regions with high trend values of climate tendency are predominantly concentrated in the northern and western parts of Xinjiang, with over 71.00% of the entire region experiencing an upward trend. The research results provide theoretical foundations for formulating climate risk strategies in the northwest region of China.