Modeling as a Tool for Transboundary Aquifer Assessment Prioritization

Abstract

Transboundary aquifers are critical global water supplies facing unprecedented threats of depletion; existing efforts to assess these resources do not adequately account for the complexities of transboundary human and physical system interactions to the determinant of the impact of assessment outcomes. This study developed a system dynamics model with natural, human, and technical system components for a section of the transboundary Mesilla Basin/Conejos-Médanos aquifer to evaluate the following dynamic hypothesis: how and when information from a transboundary aquifer assessment is reported and perceived, in scenarios where two countries follow identical and different timeframes, dynamically impacts the behaviors of the shared aquifer. Simulation experiments were conducted to quantitatively assess the dynamics of transboundary aquifer assessment information reporting and perception delays. These critical feedbacks have not previously been incorporated practically in simulation and analysis. Simulation results showed that the timing and content of reporting can change the dynamic behavior of natural, human, and technical components of transboundary aquifer systems. This study demonstrates the potential for modeling to assist with prioritization efforts during the data collection and exchange phases to ensure that transboundary aquifer assessments achieve their intended outcomes.