How to Model Uncertain Service Life and Durability of Components in Life Cycle Cost Analysis Applications? The Stochastic Approach to the Factor Method

Abstract

The durability of components is characterized by uncertainty, and, consequently, their estimated service life is critical for building project evaluation. Data on the durability of components used as life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) model input are able to influence model construction, model outputs, and residual value calculations. This implies dealing with uncertainty in cost estimates, according to the real estate market dynamics and the economic trends of the construction sector, and in service life estimates during the project time-horizon. This paper acknowledges the methodology presented in previous studies, based on the stochastic global cost calculation. The aim is to propose a methodological step forward by introducing flexibility over time in model input, through a stochastic approach to the Factor Method (FM). This represents an advancement in respect to the FM normed by ISO 15686—part 1:2000. Two different frames, timber and aluminum, as components of a glass façade of an office building project (located in Turin, Northern Italy), are proposed as a case study. The results give full evidence of the capacity of lifespan variables to affect the global cost calculation, overcoming the effects of environmental and financial elements, in contrast with the consolidated literature. The study demonstrates that beta and gamma distributions are preferable when introducing flexibility over time during the building construction processes, confirming the literature on the topic. The methodology adopted is demonstrated to be an effective tool when in presence of alternative investment options, enforcing decision-making in a temporal perspective.