Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation of Tourism Market Recovery Strategy after COVID-19 in Yunnan, China

Abstract

The tourism industry hit severely by COVID-19 faces the challenge of developing effective market recovery strategies. Nonetheless, the existing literature is still limited regarding the dynamic evolution process and management practice. Hence, this study chose several famous spots in the Yunnan Province of China as the focus for a case study and utilized an agent-based simulation method for the decision-making process of tourists’ destination selection and the dynamic recovery process of the destinations under different price and information strategies. The study found that the recovery effects of information strategies are positive, negative, or have no effect in different destinations. In contrast, price strategies can significantly stimulate an increase in the market share of destinations. When price strategy and information strategy are applied simultaneously, the interaction effects are inconsistent in different destinations. The findings contribute to the prediction of the recovery effect of strategies, can reduce trial and error costs, and can improve the scientific understanding of tourism market recovery.