Evaluation of China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation Policies: A Decomposition Analysis Based on the Poverty Reduction Effects

Abstract

To achieve comprehensive poverty alleviation and the establishment of a “moderately prosperous society” in China, it is crucial to evaluate the targeted poverty alleviation (TPA) policies. In this study, China’s poverty alleviation statistics and the Foster-Greene-Thorbecke (FGT) indices are used to measure the poverty reduction effects of the TPA policies. A panel regression model is applied to analyze the poverty reduction mechanism while the Shapley index decomposition method is used to analyze poverty reduction effects in terms of income growth and the income gap adjustment. The paper concludes that the poverty breadth index (H index), poverty depth index (PG index), and poverty intensity index (SPG index) from 2013 to 2019 show a significant decline overall. This indicates that the poverty reduction effect of the TPA policies is significant. In addition, the regression analysis shows that the implementation of TPA policies can significantly increase the income level of residents and narrow the income gap among residents in rural areas. Results of the Shapley index decomposition analysis revealed that the income growth effect and income gap adjustment effect accounted for 92.78% and 7.22% of the poverty reduction effects, respectively. So the focus of future poverty alleviation work is to combine the rural revitalization strategy and to continue increasing the income level and the income growth rate of poor groups, which will enhance the ability of impoverished residents to increase their income, further contributing to the alleviation of poverty.