Evolution in the Impact of Pro-Poor Policies on Farmers’ Confidence: Based on Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Perspective

Abstract

The Age-Period-Cohort Model is used in this paper to examine how farmers’ confidence has changed in response to various measures for reducing poverty, based on data from 13,559 household tracking surveys, with a view to inform rural poverty reduction policies within Targeted Poverty Reduction Strategy (TPRS). The findings indicate that: (1) Farmers who get monetary grants have significantly lower levels of confidence than farmers who do not. The difference between the ages of 18 and 70, where this issue is more noticeable, grew between 2013 and 2018. (2) Between 2010 and 2018, transfer employment was more likely than monetary handouts to increase farmers’ confidence, and this difference was particularly obvious among young people (18–45 years old) and elderly individuals (65+). (3) The confidence gap between farmers with and without medical insurance has widened over time. Farmers with medical insurance have significantly higher confidence than farmers without it. Lessons for TPRS suggest that to reduce poverty among poor groups in a way that is both stable and sustainable, poverty alleviation strategies should take psychological factors into account when evaluating their efficacy. They should also concentrate on how employment boosts self-confidence.