Research on Cross-Correlation, Co-Integration, and Causality Relationship between Civil Aviation Incident and Airline Capacity in China

Abstract

Aviation incident is a crucial approach for accident prevention and safety improvement. It is of remarkable practical significance to clarify the relationship between aviation incidents and airline capacity. In the present study, time-series analysis methods, such as cross-correlation, co-integration, and causality analysis are employed to explore the longitudinal relationship between airline capacity (measured by flight hours) and aviation incidents in seven different categories in China from 1994 to 2020. The obtained results indicate the existence of a substantial positive correlation between the total number of incidents and flight hours in China’s civil aviation. Among the incidents with various categories, there exists a remarkably positive correlation between flight hours and incidents caused by environmental factors, ground support, and other factors. Additionally, the maximum degree of positive correlation is detected between incidents caused by environmental factors and flight hours. However, a negative correlation between flight hours and incidents caused by aircrew, air traffic control, and aircraft maintenance is carefully displayed and discussed. More investigations reveal that there would be no co-integration relationship between the total number of incidents and flight hours. Among the incidents with different categories, a co-integration relationship between the number of incidents caused by ground support and flight hours is also reported, demonstrating a long-term equilibrium relationship between them. There is no Granger causality between the total number of incidents and flight hours; nevertheless, there is a one-way Granger causality between flight hours and incidents resulting from ground support and environmental factors. It implies that the flight hours can be exploited to explain and predict the variations of these two categories of incidents. This study clarifies the relationship between incidents and airline capacity from a statistical point of view and provides a solid reference for policymakers to implement safety management.