Prospects for Erratic and Intensifying Madden-Julian Oscillations

Abstract

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a planetary-scale convective disturbance that typically forms in the equatorial Indian Ocean, propagates slowly eastward, and dissipates near the date line. This study examines how the MJO changes in response to a changing radiative forcing in a fully-Lagrangian coupled model (LCM) that is shown to simulate robust and realistic MJOs. After the LCM is spun up for 160 years to reproduce the late 20th century climate, non-water-vapor longwave optical depth is increased over 70 years to model the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases. The model is then run for another 30 years without additional changes to the radiative forcing. After the radiative forcing is modified, the MJO generally becomes more frequent and intense, but it is also more variable from one year to the next. Not only do composite MJO rainfall perturbations increase, but wind, temperature, and moisture perturbations also become stronger. The aspect of the MJO’s structure that changes the most is the largely dry equatorial Kelvin wave circulation that circumnavigates the globe between moist phases of the MJO. Potential impacts of these changes included alterations to the way in which the MJO modulates tropical cyclones, monsoon disturbances, and El Niño.