Prediction of Maximum Tunnel Uplift Caused by Overlying Excavation Using XGBoost Algorithm with Bayesian Optimization

Abstract

The uplifting behaviors of existing tunnels due to overlying excavations are complex and non-linear. They are contributed to by multiple factors, and therefore, they are difficult to be accurately predicted. To address this issue, an extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) prediction model based on Bayesian optimization (BO), namely, BO-XGBoost, was developed specifically for assessing the tunnel uplift. The modified model incorporated various factors such as an engineering design, soil types, and site construction conditions as input parameters. The performance of the BO-XGBoost model was compared with other models such as support vector machines (SVMs), the classification and regression tree (CART) model, and the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model. In preparation for the model, 170 datasets from a construction site were collected and divided into 70% for training and 30% for testing. The BO-XGBoost model demonstrated a superior predictive performance, providing the most accurate displacement predictions and exhibiting better generalization capabilities. Further analysis revealed that the accuracy of the BO-XGBoost model was primarily influenced by the site’s construction factors. The interpretability of the BO-XGBoost model will provide valuable guidance for geotechnical practitioners in their decision-making processes.