Optimal Choices in Decision Supporting System for Network Reservoir Operation

Abstract

The aim of this research was to identify optimal choices in decision support systems for network reservoirs by using optimal rule curves under four scenarios related to water scarcity and overflow situations. These scenarios were normal water shortage, high water shortage, normal overflow and high overflow situations. The application of various optimization techniques, including Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Wind-Driven Optimization (WDO) and the Marine Predator Algorithm (MPA), in conjunction with a reservoir simulation model, was conducted to produce alternative choices, leading to suitable decision-making options. The Bhumibol and Sirikit reservoirs, situated in Thailand, were selected as the case study for the network reservoir system. The objective functions for the search procedure were the minimal average water shortage per year, the minimal maximum water shortage and the minimal average water spill per year in relation to the main purpose of the reservoir system using the release criteria of the standard operating policy (SOP) and the hedging rule (HR). The best options of each scenario were chosen from 152 options of feasible solutions. The obtained results from the assessment of the effectiveness of alternative choices showed that the best option for normal water scarcity was the rule curve with the objective function of minimal average water shortage per year, using HR and recommended SOP for operation, whereas the best option for high-water shortage situation was the rule curves with objective function of minimal of maximum water shortage using HR and recommended HR for operation. For overflow situation, the best option for normal overflow situation was the rule curves with objective function of minimal average water spill per year using HR and the recommended SOP for operation, whereas the best option for the high overflow situation was the rule curve with the objective function of minimal average water spill per year using HR and the recommended HR for operation. When using the best curves according to the situation, this would result in a minimum water shortage of 153.789 MCM/year, the lowest maximum water shortage of 1338.00 MCM/year, minimum overflow of 978.404 MCM/year and the lowest maximum overflow of 7214.00 MCM/year. Finally, the obtained findings from this study would offer reliability and resiliency information for decision making in reservoir operation for the multi-reservoir system in the upper region of Thailand.