Contrails and Their Dependence on Meteorological Situations

Abstract

Contrails created by aircraft are a very hot topic today because they contribute to the warming of the atmosphere. Air traffic density is very high, and current forecasts predict a further significant increase. Increased air traffic volume is associated with an increased occurrence of contrails and induced cirrus clouds. The scientific level of contrails and their impact on the Earth’s climate is surprisingly low. The scientific studies published so far are mainly based on global models, in situ measurements, and satellite observations of contrails. The research is based on observations of contrails in flight paths in the vicinity of Děčín and Prague, and the collection of flight and meteorological data. It focused on the influence of the meteorological situation on the formation of persistent contrails. The collected data on contrails and meteorological variables were statistically processed using machine learning methods for classification models. Several models were developed to predict and simulate the properties of contrails as a function of given air traffic and meteorological conditions. The Random Forests model produced the best results. Dependencies between meteorological conditions, formation, and contrail lifetime were found. The aim of the study was to identify the possibility of using available meteorological data to predict persistent contrails.