Numerical Forecast Correction of Temperature and Wind Using a Single-Station Single-Time Spatial LightGBM Method

Abstract

Achieving high-performance numerical weather prediction (NWP) is important for people’s livelihoods and for socioeconomic development. However, NWP is obtained by solving differential equations with globally observed data without capturing enough local and spatial information at the observed station. To improve the forecasting performance, we propose a novel spatial lightGBM (Light Gradient Boosting Machine) model to correct the numerical forecast results at each observation station. By capturing the local spatial information of stations and using a single-station single-time strategy, the proposed method can incorporate the observed data and model data to achieve high-performance correction of medium-range predictions. Experimental results for temperature and wind prediction in Hainan Province show that the proposed correction method performs well compared with the ECWMF model and outperforms other competing methods.