Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors on Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution in Small Town Areas under the Background of Rapid Industrialization

Abstract

To promote sustainable agricultural development in small town areas during rapid industrialization, it is important to study the evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution (ANSP) and its influencing factors in small town areas in the context of rapid industrialization. The non-point source inventory method was used to study the characteristics of ANSP evolution in 14 small town areas in Gongyi City from 2002 to 2019. Using the spatial Durbin model and geographical detectors, the factors influencing ANSP in small town areas were analyzed in terms of spatial spillover effects and the spatial stratified heterogeneity. The results showed a zigzagging downward trend of ANSP equivalent emissions over time. Spatially, the equivalent emissions of ANSP showed a distribution pattern of being high in the west and low in the east. There was a significant positive global spatial autocorrelation feature and there was an inverted “U-shaped” Environmental Kuznets Curve relationship between industrialization and ANSP. Affluence, population size, and cropping structure positively contributed to the reduction of ANSP. Population size, land size, and industrialization were highly influential factors affecting the spatial variation of ANSP and the interaction of these factors was bivariate or nonlinearly enhanced. This study provides a feasible reference for policymakers and managers to develop reasonable management measures to mitigate ANSP in small town areas during rapid industrialization.