Ecological Risk Assessment of Geological Disasters Based on Probability-Loss Framework: A Case Study of Fujian, China

Abstract

Geological disaster could pose a great threat to human development and ecosystem health. An ecological risk assessment of geological disasters is critical for ecosystem management and prevention of risks. Herein, based on the “probability-loss” theory, a framework integrating the hazard, vulnerability, and potential damage for assessing the ecological risk of geological disasters was proposed and applied to Fujian Province. In the process, a random forest (RF) model was implemented for hazard assessment by integrating multiple factors, and landscape indices were adopted to analyze vulnerability. Meanwhile, ecosystem services and spatial population data were used to characterize the potential damage. Furthermore, the factors and mechanisms that impact the hazard and influence risk were analyzed. The results demonstrate that (1) the regions exhibiting high and very high levels of geological hazard cover an area of 10.72% and 4.59%, respectively, and are predominantly concentrated in the northeast and inland regions, often distributed along river valleys. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), precipitation, elevation, and slope are the most important factors for the hazard. (2) The high ecological risk of the study area shows local clustering and global dispersion. Additionally, human activities have a significant influence on ecological risk. (3) The assessment results based on the RF model have high reliability with a better performance compared with the information quantity model, especially when identifying high-level hazard areas. Our study will improve research on the ecological risk posed by geological disasters and provide effective information for ecological planning and disaster mitigation.