Risk Assessment of Geological Hazards in the Alpine Gorge Region and Its Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Jiulong County, China

Abstract

The mountainous areas in the western part of Sichuan Province are mostly Alpine Gorge regions with high mountains, steep slopes, complex topography and geomorphology, special climatic conditions, infertile soils, and fragile ecological environments. In this study, a geohazard risk assessment was carried out in the Alpine Gorge region to prevent geohazards from hindering socio-economic development, affecting the lives and safety of residents, and undermining sustainable development in the region. With the help of a geographic information system (GIS), the analysis of geohazard influence factors was carried out; eight indicators, such as elevation and slope aspect, were selected to construct the evaluation index system. Additionally, the time and space distribution pattern of each influence factor and geohazard was analyzed. Geologic hazards in the region are influenced mainly by precipitation and human engineering activities. The prediction and evaluation of geohazard risk in Jiulong County are based on the Information Value model (IV), the Logistic Regression model (LR), and the Random Forest model (RF). Comparing the Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the three models for the accuracy test, the results show that all three models are suitable for the Alpine Gorge region, and the Logistic Regression model has the highest accuracy. Based on the evaluation results, measures and countermeasures for geologic disaster prevention and mitigation are proposed in light of the reality of geologic disaster prevention and mitigation work in Jiulong County. The research results can guide the government’s disaster prevention and mitigation work, provide a scientific basis for formulating regional geologic disaster prevention and control strategies, and ultimately promote the region’s sustainable development.