The Impact of Urbanization on Urban Heat Island: Predictive Approach Using Google Earth Engine and CA-Markov Modelling (2005–2050) of Tianjin City, China

Abstract

Urbanization has adverse environmental effects, such as rising surface temperatures. This study analyzes the relationship between the urban heat island (UHI) intensity and Tianjin city’s land cover characteristics. The land use cover change (LUCC) effects on the green areas and the land surface temperature (LST) were also studied. The land cover characteristics were divided into five categories: a built-up area, an agricultural area, a bare area, a forest, and water. The LST was calculated using the thermal bands of spatial images taken from 2005 to 2020. The increase in the built-up area was mainly caused by the agricultural area decreasing by 11.90%. The average land surface temperature of the study area increased from 23.50 to 36.51 °C, and the region moved to a high temperature that the built-up area’s temperature increased by 1.5%. Still, the increase in vegetation cover was negative. From 2020 to 2050, the land surface temperature is expected to increase by 9.5 °C. The high-temperature areas moved into an aerial distribution, and the direction of urbanization determined their path. Urban heat island mitigation is best achieved through forests and water, and managers of urban areas should avoid developing bare land since they may suffer from degradation. The increase in the land surface temperature caused by the land cover change proves that the site is becoming more urbanized. The findings of this study provide valuable information on the various aspects of urbanization in Tianjin and other regions. In addition, future research should look into the public health issues associated with rapid urbanization.