Influence of Pavement Structure, Traffic, and Weather on Urban Flexible Pavement Deterioration

Abstract

Various studies have been recently conducted to predict pavement condition, but most of them were developed in a certain region where climate conditions were kept constant and/or the research focused on specific road distresses using single parameters. Thus, this research aimed at determining the influence of pavement structure, traffic demand, and climate factors on urban flexible pavement condition over time. To do this, the Structural Number was used as an indicator of the pavement capacity, various traffic and climate variables were defined, and the Pavement Condition Index was used as a surrogate measure of pavement condition. The analysis was focused on the calibration of regression models by using the K-Fold Cross Validation technique. As a result, for a given pavement age, pavement condition worsens as the Equivalent Single Axle Load and the Annual Average Height of Snow increased. Likewise, a cold Annual Average Temperature (5–15 °C) and a large Annual Average Range of Temperature (20–30 °C) encourage a more aggressive pavement deterioration process. By contrast, warm climates with low temperature variations, which are associated with low precipitation, lead to a longer pavement service life. Additionally, a new classification of climate zones was proposed on the basis of the weather influence on pavement deterioration.